Your Condo Looks Good Today. But What Will It Compete Against in 5 Years?

Your future buyer has choices

“Jerry, this condo is in a good location. The price looks reasonable. Should I buy?” My next question: “When you sell five years from now, what other homes will your buyer compare it with?” Buying is about both today's suitability and tomorrow's resale alternatives. Your future buyer will be choosing from the market that exists then, not today's listings.

What URA's Q3 2026 supply figures mean

URA's Q3 2026 statistics, released 23 October 2026, reported 44,738 units in the approved private housing pipeline including ECs, 20,300 unsold units within that pipeline, approximately 32,800 units potentially available for sale in the next one to two years including ECs, and approximately 57,200 expected completions over coming years including ECs. Completed private residential vacancy excluding ECs was 7.2%, while the overall private residential price index rose 1.4% in Q3. These supply categories overlap: do not add 32,800 to 57,200. Potential sales are not immediate completed resale listings. Verify the release for subsequent revisions.

Why future supply matters

Imagine two similar condominiums. One has relatively little identifiable nearby residential development; another has several projects expected to complete during your holding period. The second could face more alternatives when you sell, but new amenities and infrastructure may also improve the area. Future supply is a risk factor, not a guarantee of lower prices. Assess both demand and the quality of the competing homes.

Which condos actually compete?

Not every new condo competes directly with yours. A luxury Core Central Region launch may be irrelevant to most buyers of a Sengkang family condo. A nearby three-bedroom project at a similar total budget is more relevant. Compare location, total quantum, bedroom count, usable space, age, facilities and target buyer profile. Projects can be close without sharing the same buyer pool.

A hypothetical resale-versus-newer comparison

Hypothetical comparison: resale Condo A, 1,000 sqft at S$1.8m (S$1,800 psf), versus newer Condo B, 950 sqft at S$1.9m (S$2,000 psf). Condo A offers more space for less money; Condo B may offer a more efficient layout, better access or lower immediate renovation costs. Neither wins automatically. Ask whether your resale unit's price compensates for the differences. These figures are illustrative, not market transactions.

New launch PSF is not a resale forecast

“A nearby new launch is S$2,500 psf while this resale condo is S$1,800 psf, so surely it will appreciate.” Not necessarily. Launch prices reflect site costs, design, unit mix, market timing and developer strategy. Compare age, tenure, location, facilities, usable layout and maintenance before treating a PSF gap as an opportunity. A price difference is a question to investigate, not proof of upside.

The TOP effect

TOP (Temporary Occupation Permit) is a milestone toward occupation. When new projects complete, some owners move in and some investors seek tenants; later resale offerings depend on actual owners and applicable restrictions. Do not assume every new unit becomes a resale listing. Track realistic completion windows and the number of units directly comparable to your home.

GLS sites and future projects

Government Land Sales sites may become future residential projects, but tender award, design, marketing and construction take time. Check site location, permitted uses, estimated residential capacity where published, development status and likely buyer segment. GLS supply may increase competition while also bringing amenities and neighbourhood investment. Treat completion timing as uncertain.

Master Plan: opportunity and competition

URA's Master Plan guides land use over roughly 10 to 15 years. Review surrounding residential, commercial, transport and amenity proposals, but do not assume each possible development will be built on a fixed schedule. An area can improve through new infrastructure while individual condos still face tougher resale competition.

Three layers of resale competition

Three layers matter: (A) similar units listed in your own development; (B) nearby resale projects offering competing size, facilities, tenure or price; and (C) new and upcoming developments. Your most relevant competitor is the home a realistic buyer would choose instead of yours, not necessarily the closest building.

What makes a condo defensible?

Properties may have more defensible resale appeal through practical layouts, accessibility, reasonable entry price, manageable ownership costs and useful advantages that are difficult to replace at a similar budget. None guarantees appreciation. Focus on attributes your future buyer will understand and pay for.

The S$100,000 exit difference

Illustrative exit calculation: sell at S$1.9m versus S$1.8m, with S$700,000 mortgage redemption, S$350,000 CPF refund, 2% agency commission plus 9% GST on commission, and S$3,000 legal fees. Estimated cash proceeds: S$805,580 versus S$707,760, a difference of S$97,820. This assumes no SSD, prepayment penalty or other adjustments; it is not a prediction of future prices. CPF refunds and cash proceeds are not the same as investment profit.

Should you hold another five years?

Consider four future outcomes: stronger resale demand, stable prices, weaker resale conditions and more competing units. For landlords include net rent, vacancy, repairs and taxes; for owner-occupiers consider continued housing utility and alternative accommodation. Holding is not automatically better, nor is selling. Consider what holding achieves and your financial reserves.

Check Seller's Stamp Duty timing

Singapore residential Seller's Stamp Duty depends on acquisition date, holding period and exemptions. For acquisitions on or after 4 July 2025, the general SSD holding period is four years; earlier acquisitions can follow different schedules. Check the applicable IRAS guidance before planning an early exit. Do not assume that a five-year intention removes every timing or financing risk.

Your Future Competition Matrix

A practical Future Competition Matrix checks: (1) current comparable sales and listings, (2) upcoming projects and realistic TOP windows, (3) URA planning changes, (4) likely future buyers, (5) your property's practical strengths, (6) mortgage, CPF and holding power, and (7) realistic selling timelines. This is scenario planning, not an exact five-year price forecast.

BUY, HOLD or RECONSIDER

BUY when entry price, suitability and finances are defensible despite likely competition. HOLD when an existing home still serves your needs and selling does not materially improve your position. RECONSIDER when the price depends on optimistic appreciation, competing options appear stronger or holding power is weak. Before an Option to Purchase, WhatsApp Jerry “FUTURE COMPETITION REVIEW” with the project, asking price and intended holding period. No obligation to transact. Jerry Low 劉權義 | Huttons Asia Pte Ltd. Visit jerrylow.sg. Related: https://jerrylow.sg/articles/condo-worth-asking-price-singapore-2026/ . Disclaimer (4 November 2026): Educational content, not a valuation or personalised financial, legal or tax advice. All comparisons and proceeds examples are hypothetical; check current URA/IRAS data and your own circumstances.